TikTok’s 2026 trend forecast says emotional ROI is replacing impulse buying

TikTok's Next 2026 trend forecast argues that the future of marketing will be decided by sharper human judgement rather than by better tools alone.

The report is structured around what TikTok calls “Irreplaceable Instinct”: the qualities technology cannot automate, including curiosity, connection and the ability to stay present when life seems chaotic or unresolved. The idea shapes the research and also how TikTok now wants brands to act on the platform.

Cassie Taylor, who is TikTok's global head of platform and trends marketing, said the story of 2026 is not people rejecting technology but how they choose to use it.

“This report centers around what technology and AI can't replace,” she said. “Connection, culture, curiosity. Even going down rabbit holes just because something feels interesting. And also this idea of showing up – being present – even when things feel messy or uncomfortable.”

From coping to participating

One of the main shifts the report identifies is a move away from passive coping behaviours, such as quiet quitting, avoidance and running on autopilot, towards something more active.

“In previous years, you saw people stepping back,” Taylor said. “Now, it's more like, ‘No, we're going to figure this out together. Even if there isn't a clear roadmap.’”

That outlook underpins the first trend signal, Reali-Tea, which describes a turn from polished fantasy to shared reality. On TikTok, it appears in creators speaking frankly about work routines, hygiene rituals, career worries, ageing and everyday compromises. For brands, relatability has become a structural requirement rather than a choice of tone.

“It's not about creating an AI avatar or a chatbot and calling it ‘human,’” Taylor said. “It's about listening. Learning. Reflecting how people actually feel – with empathy and wit.”

How Oreo let the community lead

Oreo, which is featured in the report, is cited as a brand that let its community shape how it appeared rather than simply following a trend.

Instead of using TikTok as a campaign channel, Oreo made its account into something TikTok likens to a clubhouse, embracing comment culture, playful speculation and in-jokes, and even letting fans spread rumours of cross-brand “romances” before collaborations.

For its partnership with Reese's, Oreo did not open with a product reveal. It joined in with a running joke about “merging” with your best friend and let the community write the script in the comments. TikTok says this produced one of Oreo's best-performing posts of the year, lifting shares and engagement because people felt included rather than targeted.

“That's what Reali-Tea looks like in practice,” Taylor said. “You're not forcing yourself into culture. You're letting culture pull you in.”

Curiosity detours

The second signal, Curiosity Detours, concerns behaviour. TikTok's research suggests people do not move in an orderly line through awareness, consideration and purchase; discovery is untidy, lateral and often accidental.

“The funnel just isn't linear any more,” Taylor said. “People start in one place and end up somewhere completely different.”

She described searching TikTok for travel tips about Italy and ending up immersed in videos about Pope Leo, a path that looks illogical on paper but makes sense in practice. TikTok's data shows users often arrive with a specific intent and leave having found new interests, categories and brands.

Moritz Bartsch, TikTok's head of creative operations, said brands still make the mistake of treating the platform as purely upper funnel or lower funnel. “If you do that, you're missing how people actually behave on the platform,” he said.

Bartsch pointed to TikTok Market Scope, the analytics product behind the report, as a way to map these non-linear journeys. Instead of fixing a person at one stage of a funnel, brands can follow how audiences shift from discovery to conversation to purchase, across creator, organic and paid content.

Duracell is one example. Analysing search behaviour, the brand noticed that people searching for batteries overlapped surprisingly with K-pop fans, who were using its products in concert light sticks. A niche finding turned into a priority audience and a growth driver because Duracell spotted the link early and acted fast.

“That's the power of seeing the whole picture,” Bartsch said. “You're not guessing. You're responding.”

Emotional ROI

The third signal, Emotional ROI, describes a change in buying behaviour. TikTok's research suggests that, despite tighter budgets, people are widening what they count as “essential”, putting meaning, joy and relevance ahead of price alone.

“Impulse is losing to intention,” Taylor said. “People want to understand why something is worth buying – how it fits into their life, their identity, their community.”

Audible illustrates the point. Instead of pushing recommendations, it invited followers to post their five-star book recommendations in the comments, building trust as well as engagement as community members effectively vouched for the product to one another.

“That human spark still matters,” Taylor said. “People might get information from AI. But they come to TikTok for perspective.”

Media and commerce converge

Taken together, TikTok concludes that the boundary between media and commerce has effectively disappeared.

“Brands are always trying to achieve commercial outcomes through media investment,” Bartsch said. “That doesn't mean every ad is transactional, but it does mean everything connects.”

TikTok built the report with the same tools it now offers marketers. “We used Market Scope to identify the same kinds of signals brands can see themselves,” Bartsch said. “The point is to move quickly – from insight to content to action – while the moment still matters.”

Ultimately, the outlook asks marketers for better judgement rather than more content or automation. “You can generate faster than ever now,” Taylor said. “But the question is, ‘Are you paying attention to what actually resonates?’”

TikTok's case is that instinct, shaped by data but steered by empathy, could be the most important skill brands have left.